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- What: UFC Denver Main Event
- Who: Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez
- Date: Saturday, July 13, 2024
- Location: Ball Arena in Denver, CO
- Time: Prelims (7:00 p.m. ET), Main Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Prelims (ESPN, ESPN+), Main Card (ESPN, ESPN+)
On Saturday, July 13, the UFC is in Denver for the first time since 2018 for an ESPN Fight Night card. The UFC Denver main event sees former UFC strawweight champion Rose Namajunas face Tracy Cortez in a flyweight matchup. Namajunas enters the contest as the No. 6 fighter in the official UFC women’s flyweight rankings, while Cortez checks in at No. 11. Cortez is a late replacement for the No. 4 ranked Maycee Barber, who dropped off the card in late June. Here is some background on the UFC Denver main event fighters, before we discuss the betting breakdown on the fight card.
Rose Namajunas (12-6) made her 125-pound UFC debut in September 2023. Manon Fiorot bested the former 115-pound champion by decision in that scrap. Namajunas bounced back from that defeat with a March decision victory over Amanda Ribas.
Tracy Cortez (11-1) is on a roll. She debuted with the UFC in November 2019, and although she has only fought five times for the UFC, Cortez is undefeated with the promotion. She is coming off a September decision victory over Jasmine Jasudavicius.
Before we look at the best bets for the Namajunas vs. Cortez matchup on the UFC Denver card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find our betting picks for the main event of UFC 304, Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad 2.
UFC Denver main event: Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |
| Rose Namajunas | -227 | -220 | -210 |
| Tracy Cortez | +192 | +180 | +170 |
Rose Namajunas betting breakdown
There were a lot of questions plaguing Rose Namajunas as she headed into her matchup with Amanda Ribas. Namajunas’ title-losing fight against Carla Esparza was a bad one. She only landed 37 significant strikes in the five-round battle and seemed reluctant to engage. Further, there were questions about why Namajunas would move to 125, as she has two wins over the current 115-pound champion. The biggest question Namajunas faced was if she had the confidence and drive to perform at a high level in a new weight class, as she did not fully answer those questions in her loss to Manon Fiorot.
Namajunas was less busy in the Ribas fight than she was against Fiorot, but she was more accurate, improving from a 40 percent landing rate to 49 percent. Ribas threw more strikes than Namajunas in each of the five rounds in that fight. It’s not out of the question that her accuracy swayed the judges in Namajunas’ favor. Namajunas also racked up nearly seven minutes of control time against Ribas, who is known for striking more than her grappling.
Namajunas averages 3.69 significant strikes landed per minute with an accuracy of 41 percent. She gets tagged 3.51 times per minute with a defensive rate of 63 percent. The ex-champion lands 1.38 takedowns per 15 minutes, with a success rate of 47 percent. Namajunas’ takedown defense is 59 percent.
Tracy Cortez betting breakdown
Tracy Cortez does not have the amount of experience that Rose Namajunas has, nor has she faced the quality of opposition that Namajunas has met inside the cage. However, Cortez, who is the betting underdog in this main event contest, has better stats than Namajunas in almost every category that counts, and that should give the ex-champ and her supporters some pause heading into Denver.
Cortez is a very good wrestler/grappler who spends a lot of time on the mat in top position. There is some concern about Cortez’s defense on the feet, as she gets hit with 2.79 strikes per minute. That’s not an alarming number, but when one considers that up until her most recent matchup, Cortez notched more than six minutes of control time in her first four UFC fights, it’s something to take note of, especially against a fighter like Namajunas who can control distance and pace in the open.
Cortez’s striking is technical but can sometimes get sloppy, and her punches do not pack a lot of power. Where Cortez excels is when she is in top position on the ground, where she has a strong control game.
Cortez had success in her striking in her most recent bout. If Cortez has fallen in love with her striking, that’s a problem against someone like Namajunas. Another consideration is that Cortez was training for a three-round fight in Las Vegas, not in Denver before she agreed to face Namajunas.
Cortez lands 4.11 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 53 percent. Her striking defense is 60 percent. Cortez lands an average of 2.33 takedowns per 15 minutes, with a success rate of 46 percent. Her takedown defense is 75 percent.
Best Bets: UFC Denver main event – Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez
Rose Namajunas has advantages in experience, fighting at elevation, competing in five-round fights and in quality of opposition over Tracy Cortez heading into UFC Denver. All those things matter, and each one of those items are part of the reason that Rose Namajunas is the betting pick to beat Tracy Cortez by decision.
See below a list of reliable sportsbooks and choose the best one for you.
