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- What: UFC 304 Co-Main Event
- Who: Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes 2
- Date: Saturday, July 27, 2024
- Location: Co-op Live in Manchester, England
- Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPN), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
The next UFC pay-per-view card, UFC 304, takes place on July 27 at Co-op Live in Manchester, England. In the main event of that ESPN+ streaming pay-per-view card, UFC welterweight champion Leon Edwards, who fights out of Birmingham, England, faces American Belal Muhammad. In the evening’s co-main event, interim UFC heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall puts his title on the line against Curtis Blaydes. Below is some background on the fighters before we look at the betting breakdown for UFC 304.
Tom Aspinall (14-3) is 7-1 in the UFC. His only loss is a TKO setback because of a leg injury 15 seconds into his July 2022 matchup against Blaydes. Each of his UFC wins have come via stoppage before the end of the second round. Aspinall won the interim UFC heavyweight title in November with a 69-second knockout win over Sergei Pavlovich.
Curtis Blaydes (18-4-0-1) is the No. 4 fighter in the official UFC heavyweight rankings. Blaydes is 4-1 in his past five fights, with his only loss being an April 2023 KO defeat to Pavlovich. Blaydes is coming off a March knockout win over Jailton Almeida.
Before we look at the best bets for the Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad rematch on the UFC 304 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find our betting picks for the main event of UFC 304, Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad 2.
UFC 304 Co-main event: Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes 2 betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |  |
| Tom Aspinall | -255 | -285 | -255 | -275 |
| Curtis Blaydes | +215 | +225 | +205 | +206 |
UFC 304: Tom Aspinall betting breakdown
Aspinall is a fast starter. Of his seven UFC wins, six have come via first-round stoppage, and the other victory came at the 1:09 mark of Round 2. The 31-year-old has an impressive striking game to back up his black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Of his three career losses, one came via injury, one via DQ for illegal elbows, and one via submission (in 2015). Aspinall does his best work on the mat, but his speed on the feet and his ability to find openings for his fast counters also make him a threat in the striking department. He looked excellent in returning from injury against Tybura, showing no reluctance to engage and no ill effects from the leg injury he suffered against Blaydes.
Aspinall is light on his feet. He moves like a man much smaller than he is, and that makes him one of the more dangerous UFC heavyweights. His quickness allows him to move in and out with his strikes, and also avoid blows from his opponent.
Aspinall has the highest strikes landed per minute average in UFC heavyweight history at 7.72, and his striking differential of plus 4.95 is the best in the division’s history. His striking accuracy is 66 percent. The interim champ absorbs 2.77 significant strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 66 percent. Aspinall averages 3.46 takedowns per 15 minutes with a takedown accuracy of 100 percent. His takedown defense is also 100 percent.
Aspinall has the shortest average fight time in the history of the UFC heavyweight division at 2:10. He also is the UFC heavyweight leader in bottom position time (one second) and bottom position percentage (0.1 percent)
UFC 304: Curtis Blaydes betting breakdown
Curtis Blaydes is best known for his wrestling, and that’s because he’s used his wrestling to dominate his opponents on the mat. He is far and away the all-time leader in takedowns in UFC heavyweight history with 62. What’s noteworthy is Blaydes only has three takedowns in his past six fights, and all three of those came in his decision win over Jairzinho Rozenstruik in 2021. Blaydes has attempted one takedown in his past four outings. What that says about the 33-year-old is that he’s becoming a better all-around MMA fighter. His striking has improved, and he’s learned to trust his hands a lot more
If Blaydes has fallen in love with his striking and forgotten about his wrestling he will be in trouble against the more athletic and agile Aspinall. The other issue Blaydes faces in this matchup is that no one has taken Aspinall to the mat. While it’s true that Aspinall has only faced two takedown attempts, one reason opponents don’t want to tangle with him on the ground is because he has a black belt in jiu-jitsu and he’s a dangerous grappler. With that in mind, Blaydes has a heavy top game and holds the UFC heavyweight record for top position time at 1:06:09, so there’s a chance he can hold Aspinall on the mat and unload with ground strikes, especially if the fight goes long and Aspinall’s cardio fails.
Blaydes lands 3.53 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 50 percent. His striking defense is 59 percent, and he absorbs 1.83 significant strikes per minute. Blaydes picks up 5.72 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 53 percent, and his takedown defense is 31 percent.
Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes 2: What’s at stake
While we don’t know when UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones will face ex-champ Stipe Miocic, there’s a very good chance the winner of this UFC interim heavyweight title contest will either face the winner of that bout or be elevated to undisputed champion if the winner of that contest retires. In short, the co-main event of UFC 304 is an important heavyweight scrap.
Best Bets: UFC 304 Co-Main Event – Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes 2
Tom Aspinall is a more well-rounded and athletic fighter than Curtis Blaydes. The interim heavyweight champion simply has more tools and ways to win than the challenger. The betting pick is Tom Aspinall to defeat Curtis Blaydes by knockout.
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