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- What: UFC 311 Co-Main Event
- Who: Merab Dvalishvili Vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
- Date: Saturday, January 18, 2025
- Location: Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California
- Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPNews), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
The first pay-per-view card on the UFC schedule in 2025 takes place on Saturday, January 18, when the promotion heads to the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. That fight card, UFC 311, is headlined by a lightweight title fight between UFC champion Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan. In the co-main event, UFC bantamweight champ Merab Dvalishvili puts his title on the line against Umar Nurmagomedov. Here is some background on the fighters before we look at the betting breakdown of the UFC 311 co-main event.
Merab Dvalishvili (18-4) is riding an 11-fight winning streak ahead of UFC 311. He won the UFC bantamweight title in his most recent outing, beating Sean O’Malley at UFC 306 by unanimous decision. He is a teammate and training partner of former UFC 135-pound champion Aljamain Sterling.
Umar Nurmagomedov (18-0) is the cousin of former UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. He joined the UFC in January 2021 and has put together a six-fight winning streak with the promotion. Nurmagomedov is coming off an August decision win over Cory Sandhagen. He is the No. 2 ranked fighter in the official UFC bantamweight rankings.
Before we look at the best bets for Merab Dvalishvili Vs. Umar Nurmagomedov on the UFC 311 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find our betting picks for the UFC 311 main event: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan 2.
UFC 311 co-main event: Merab Dvalishvili Vs. Umar Nurmagomedov betting picks
| To Win UFC Bantamweight Title |  |  |  |  |
| Merab Dvalishvili | +275 | +280 | +260 | +242 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov | -325 | -360 | -375 | -330 |
UFC 311 co-main event: Merab Dvalishvili betting breakdown
Merab Dvalishvili might have the best cardio in the UFC. He is the best-conditioned athlete in the UFC’s bantamweight division. Dvalishvili sets a relentless pace, using non-stop chain wrestling to wear out his opponents and get them to the mat. He is like a wet blanket, sticking to his opponent’s back and never giving up control. How good is Dvalishvili’s wrestling? He scored five takedowns on 11 attempts against Cejudo, an Olympic gold medal winner in wrestling, while racking up more than four minutes of control time in their three-round contest. He’s also active in his striking on the mat and in the clinch. He only lands a few significant strikes in those positions, but his high output is meant to keep his opponent under control and negate their offense.
On the feet, Dvalishvili has decent striking, with reasonably high output, but his striking is mainly to serve his wrestling. Of his 10 UFC wins, nine have come by way of decision. In short, Dvalishvili is a grinder.
Dvalishvili has a 10-fight UFC winning streak at bantamweight, which is the longest winning streak in the division’s history. He is also first all-time in the division in control time at 1:14:05. No one in the division has landed more total strikes than Dvalishvili at 1,950, and no one comes close to his 72 takedowns.
Dvalishvili lands 4.35 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 42 percent. His striking defense is 56 percent, and he gets hit 2.31 times per minute. Dvalishvili lands 6.09 takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 36 percent. His takedown defense is 80 percent.
UFC 311 co-main event: Umar Nurmagomedov betting breakdown
This fight marks the next big test of Umar Nurmagomedov’s MMA career. The 29-year-old shined against unranked competition, but there were questions about how well he would do against ranked opposition. Nurmagomedov answered those questions in August when he defeated former interim title challenger Cory Sandhagen in a five-round UFC Fight Night main event.
The last name should be a giveaway of what type of approach Nurmagomedov brings to the cage. He has good striking, but his goal is to get the fight to the mat and rack up control time while looking for submissions or landing ground strikes while tying up his opponent’s wrist. Nurmagomedov can get tagged, something that happened early in his fight against Bekzat Almakhan, but he has great situational awareness and the ability to recover. Like his UFC 311 opponent, Nurmagomedov has good cardio and can string together his takedown attempts without running out of gas. In the Almakhan fight, Nurmagomedov went five for five in takedowns and had 11:26 of control time. Against Sandhagen, he had five takedowns on 13 attempts and 5:11 of control time.
Nurmagomedov has the UFC bantamweight record for significant striking accuracy at 63.1 percent, and he is first in the division in top position percentage at 42.4 percent.
Nurmagomedov averages 4.46 significant strikes per minute. His striking defense is 63 percent, and he gets hit an average of 1.36 times per minute. Nurmagomedov averages 3.98 takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 50 percent. His takedown defense is 100 percent.
Best Bets: UFC 311 co-main event – Merab Dvalishvili Vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
The betting odds for this fight make a pick a bit difficult. While I think Umar Nurmagomedov will get the win, there is not a lot of betting value in picking him to be the victor. With that, one might consider some prop bets for this contest, such as the fight length. I think the bout will go the distance. Another option is who will land more strikes and takedowns. I believe that Nurmagomedov will top Dvalishvili in those categories. As for the fight outcome, the betting pick is for Umar Nurmagomedov to beat Merab Dvalishvili via decision.
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