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- What: PFL Road to Dubai Main Event
- Who: Usman Nurmagomedov Vs. Paul Hughes
- Date: Saturday, January 25, 2025
- Location: Coca-Cola Arena in Dubai, UAE
- Time: Prelims (11:00 a.m. ET), Main Card (1:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: MAX
The first Professional Fighters League fight card of 2025 takes place on Saturday. The event, PFL: Road to Dubai Champions Series goes down at Coca-Cola Arena in Dubai, UAE. In the main event, Usman Nurmagomedov looks to defend his Bellator lightweight title against Paul Hughes. The fight card will be broadcast and streamed on MAX. Here is some background on the fighters before we look at the betting breakdown for the main event of the upcoming PFL event.
Usman Nurmagomedov (18-0-0-1) won the Bellator lightweight title in November 2022 with a decision win over Patricky “Pitbull” Freire. He has defended that title twice, defeating former UFC lightweight champ Benson Henderson in early 2023 and Alexandr Shabliy in 2024. In late 2023, Nurmagomedov, who is the cousin of former UFC lightweight great Khabib Nurmagomedov, defeated Alexandr Shabliy via decision. The California State Athletic Commission later ruled the win a no contest after Nurmagomedov tested positive for a banned substance. He was suspended six months for the drug test failure.
Paul Hughes (13-1) is being hailed as a possible heir to Conor McGregor’s throne as the face of Irish MMA. The former Cage Warriors featherweight champ joined Bellator in 2024. He is 2-0 with the promotion, with a TKO over Bobby King. He also has a decision victory over former Bellator lightweight champ A.J. McKee.
Before we look at the best bets for the Usman Nurmagomedov Vs. Paul Hughes scrap on the PFL Road to Dubai card, check out the best PFL betting sites and our UFC betting odds and picks.
PFL Road to Dubai: Usman Nurmagomedov Vs. Paul Hughes betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |  |
| Paul Hughes | +305 | +330 | +255 | +330 |
| Usman Nurmagomedov | -405 | -450 | -405 | -649 |
Usman Nurmagomedov betting breakdown
The last name of Nurmagomedov carries a lot of weight in the MMA world because of Khabib and his late father Abdulmanap. The name also sets expectations for a fighter who holds it or is coached by someone with that name of dominant wrestling and ground control. Usman Nurmagomedov breaks with that tradition. He is a striker first. He has a karate-style approach to his striking, using range, distance, and reach to move in and out and punish his opponents with his distance management and spatial awareness. Although he is a striker first, he can also do much damage on the mat, as he has picked up six career submission wins to go with his eight knockouts and four decisions.
Nurmagomedov’s striking is dynamic, and he is very active with his high and low kicks. He confidently throws those kicks from range because his takedown defense is excellent. Another thing he does well is to mix his offensive wrestling in when his opponent starts to get winded and accustomed to the striking as his fights wear on.
Paul Hughes betting breakdown
In early 2024, there was some debate about where Paul Hughes would sign to fight, the UFC or the PFL. He went with the PFL. Hughes said, “It’s pretty simple — they had the best offer. I had offers from every major organization you can think of, UFC obviously included, but the PFL’s offer was just the best. It was something that, yes, we signed the deal just one week after free agency, but I had received an offer from the PFL six months ago. So I had a long time to think about this potential avenue, and to do my due diligence and really think about it on all levels.
“When it came to the negotiation stage, it wasn’t just purely a financial thing. It was a case of, I want to be active. I’m coming into the prime of my career. If there’s other promotions out there that want to sign me, they need to have a good plan in place, because I want to be active in this game.”
The thing to watch with Hughes is his power and countering ability. He also is confident. With his win over a competitor like McKee, he will not be intimidated by the Nurmagomedov name or his opponent’s unbeaten record. While Hughes is a good wrestler, he might not want to tangle with Nurmagomedov on the mat. With that, look for the Irish fighter to try to keep this bout standing. Aggression from the opening bell might be the best bet for Hughes. If he keeps the champ from establishing his range and pace, Hughes could make for a difficult matchup for Nurmagomedov.
Best Bets: PFL Road to Dubai Main Event – Usman Nurmagomedov Vs. Paul Hughes
Usman Nurmagomedov is the better all-around fighter in this scrap. However, there is a chance that Paul Hughes could catch him with a powerful punch and end the fight via knockout. With that, there is some betting value in picking Hughes to win via KO.
The betting pick is for Usman Nurmagomedov to beat Paul Hughes via decision at the PFL: Road to Dubai fight card.
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